Xander said:
I feel like as a beginner that account size is too small for swing trading. Maybe try scalping. I’ve never seen a losing streak that long. Over what period of time did you lose those 20 trades?
From Nov 5ish up until today. I usually take 3 positions of 0.01 with between $10 and $15 SL each. Then take profit at 1:1, 1:2, and 1:3.
Been working great until now.
@Parker
Could be the market condition. Q4 is a shitty time to trade, especially as it draws closer to the end of the year. I stopped trading since last Friday.
Typically, I win 3 times a week and lose twice; obviously, it’s not exactly but over 18 months averages out to that.
Around 11 months ago I had two weeks with no wins; I stopped trading until I see some wins with paper trading; I have since done that once again.
You probably need a point where you take a step back to ensure you stay profitable.
If you blow an account in 20 trades only, your risk management obviously doesn’t work.
Size down your lot size when you’re in a losing streak, down to 0.5% so you can lose 100 trades and still not blow up.
What does an 80% win rate have to do with losing 20 in a row? You can lose 20 in a row and have a 99% win rate. My guess is ‘unlucky’.
I’m not a proven trader yet; I’m still working on it.
But if it’s worth anything, I swing trade the daily charts and there haven’t really been many trades in the past two months because the market wasn’t trending.
I placed my first trade in a while on GBP/NZD yesterday, and it looks like in other things the market is trending again.
You see that sell-off in US stocks today? We could be heading into a different environment now.
@Blayne
I should specify I swing trade the forex market, not stocks, just to clarify. Though they are connected, strong trends will show up in both markets when the market is trending.
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Parker said:
Farley said:
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1:3 sometimes 1:4.
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Don’t listen to this guy. If you’re losing and you make your SL bigger, you’ll lose even more.
Farley said:
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1:3 sometimes 1:4.
I’ve never seen a long-term trader use an R-multiple above 1. The most consistently profitable FX accounts on Forex Factory for 2024 have between 0.6-0.9R on average.
Study those losses and recognize what you did wrong.
You say you’re doing a 3RR, 4RR with an 80% WR? Something feels wrong.
And the probability of taking 20 losses in a row is so fucking strange.
Gold was in a strong uptrend for the last 6 months, so your swing high method worked. In the last month, it’s reversed, everywhere you get long, your stop will be touched in swings.
Wasn’t there an outstanding reason you hit SL with those twenty? Surely something is screaming at you from those losses?
There are cycles in every market, not necessarily having anything to do with a normal calendar year. Your success for 6 months, and subsequent lack of, is a result of that.
I would revise my method for entry and see this as an opportunity to refine it, taking into account when it would not have been working in the past as well, thus trying to establish some sort of cycle from which to navigate.
Last 3 months in the year should halt the trade.