Today was wild in the market with all the talk about tariffs. The peso ended up pretty strong, finishing at 20.338 after hitting 21.20 earlier. Is now the right moment to go long on the US Dollar? It’s mostly been trading between $20.35 and $20.85 for the past month. Tariffs are still a risk, and Banxico is expected to cut rates by 0.50bps on Thursday. The risks that caused the dollar to trade around $20.50 to $20.70 the last few weeks are still there! I would really like to hear your thoughts. I’m holding 2.5 mini lots ($25,000) at an average price of 20.428. My main worry is the carry costs, which will cost me about $6.25 a day in interest. My target price is $20.633 for a $250 profit. I’m okay with selling at $20.55 or higher.
I just don’t see the peso going much lower than it is now. If it does drop more, I have a limit order to buy one more mini lot at $20.22. I really believe it will hit $20.60 this week based on various factors. I’d love to hear your opinions and see if you want to join me on this trade.
Why would you go long at the end of a bull run? Shouldn’t you have gone long back in March 2024? Now it seems to have reached a balanced price and can go either way.
Zhen said:
Why would you go long at the end of a bull run? Shouldn’t you have gone long back in March 2024? Now it seems to have reached a balanced price and can go either way.
I prefer short-term trades, like 1 to 5 days. I’d rather trade in and out. I only need small swings, around 1%.
Sky said:
Stop asking others. What’s your plan? Most people will have a different opinion than you.
This is more of a discussion post. I already have my plan. I just enjoy chatting and hearing what others think. I want people to know about this potential setup. I’m not exactly looking for advice.
@Ellery
If I had to give my opinion, it looks like it should hit around 20.720. So buying seems safe. But the market is tangled, so predicting the next move will be tricky.
Sky said: @Ellery
If I had to give my opinion, it looks like it should hit around 20.720. So buying seems safe. But the market is tangled, so predicting the next move will be tricky.
That’s what I’m hoping for. The swap rates are my main concern, but otherwise, I could hold this for weeks without issue.
Sky said: @Ellery
It should reach that by Wednesday without a problem. It shouldn’t be a long wait, at least in my opinion.
Yeah, I think you might be right. In 2 to 3 days, I should have a chance to exit with some profit. Hopefully tomorrow haha. What currency pairs do you trade? Do you trade USD/MXN?
@Ellery
I trade pretty much everything except for NZD and AUD crosses. I love the exotic pairs on 1 to 4-hour charts. When I wait for my intraday swings, I usually scalp the majors.
Sky said: @Ellery
I trade pretty much everything except for NZD and AUD crosses. I love the exotic pairs on 1 to 4-hour charts. When I wait for my intraday swings, I usually scalp the majors.
If you’re on Discord or anything, we could add each other and chat. If you’re looking for trader buddies anyway haha.