Example: Does the crossover of a 50-day moving average above a 200-day moving average reliably indicate a bullish trend?
Hypothesis:
Develop a testable hypothesis to answer your question.
Example: “If the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, then the stock price will rise over the next 30 days.”
Experiment:
Test the hypothesis using historical data (backtesting) and define your parameters (e.g., entry and exit conditions, stop loss, and take profit levels).
Ensure a sufficient sample size (minimum 1000 trades).
Data analysis:
Evaluate the backtest results (win rate, risk to reward ratio, drawdown, overall profitability); you could use statistics for this part.
Example: “The hypothesis showed a 60% win rate with an average 2:1 risk-reward ratio over a 10-year dataset.”
Then refine, implement, and iterate forever. ezpz.